ROI TABLES

Return on Invesment (ROI) is the rate of return on your wagers and is calculated by dividing the total amount won by the total amount risked. ROI should play a deciding role in your NFL betting strategy. In addition to making NFL picks and managing your weekly bets, you also want to make sure your ROI is satisfactory for the amount of risk you undertake. ROI is heavily considered in other aspects of life, such as investments, but largely and incorrectly ignored in relation to NFL betting. Why would you consider your ROI when evaluating your savings account, but ignore it when evaluating your wagering strategy? You shouldn’t…

The following tables show the importance of ROI and making your standard bet size large enough in order to make a sufficient return on your bankroll. However, do not become so fixated on generating a high ROI that you forget to account for risk or abandon a disciplined money management approach.

The following tables illustrate the average percentage return per wager at varying success rates. For example, the average ROI per wager at a 57% success rate, excluding vig, is 14%. This means if you average a 57% success rate on your NFL betting during the season, you will make an average of 14% on each wager. If over the course of the season you wager on 80 games at $100 each, your total net return would be $1,120 (14% x 80 x 100).

Average ROI per Wager WITHOUT Vigorish Season Winning Percentage 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% 26.0% 28.0% 30.0%

Vigorish, however, is an unavoidable cost of gambling on sports. Below is the same data, taking into account the standard vigorish associated with a $110 wager to win $100.

Average ROI per Wager WITH Vigorish Season Winning Percentage 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% -14.1% -12.2% -10.3% -8.4% -6.5% -4.5% -2.6% -0.7% 1.2% 3.1% 5.0% 6.9% 8.8% 10.7% 12.6% 14.5% 16.5% 18.4% 20.3% 22.2% 24.1%

The following tables illustrate the percentage return on your beginning bankroll at varying success rates using a standard wager amount that averages a specific percent of bankroll wagered each week during a season. A season was calculated as 18 occurrences of wagering the specific percentage, based upon a 17 week regular season and the playoffs counting as one additional week.

For example, the return on your beginning bankroll at a 57% success rate with wagers that average 20% of your bankroll on a weekly basis, ingoring vigorish, would be 50.4%. So with a beginning bankroll of $5,000 the total net return at the end of the season would be $2,520 ($5,000 x 50.4%).

ROI per Beginning Bankroll WITHOUT Vigorish Season Winning Percentage Percentage of Beginning Bankroll Wagered Weekly 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0% 22.5% 25.0% 27.5% 30.0% 40% -9.0% -18.0% -27.0% -36.0% -45.0% -54.0% -63.0% -72.0% -81.0% -90.0% -99.0% -108.0% 41% -8.1% -16.2% -24.3% -32.4% -40.5% -48.6% -56.7% -64.8% -72.9% -81.0% -89.1% -97.2% 42% -7.2% -14.4% -21.6% -28.8% -36.0% -43.2% -50.4% -57.6% -64.8% -72.0% -79.2% -86.4% 43% -6.3% -12.6% -18.9% -25.2% -31.5% -37.8% -44.1% -50.4% -56.7% -63.0% -69.3% -75.6% 44% -5.4% -10.8% -16.2% -21.6% -27.0% -32.4% -37.8% -43.2% -48.6% -54.0% -59.4% -64.8% 45% -4.5% -9.0% -13.5% -18.0% -22.5% -27.0% -31.5% -36.0% -40.5% -45.0% -49.5% -54.0% 46% -3.6% -7.2% -10.8% -14.4% -18.0% -21.6% -25.2% -28.8% -32.4% -36.0% -39.6% -43.2% 47% -2.7% -5.4% -8.1% -10.8% -13.5% -16.2% -18.9% -21.6% -24.3% -27.0% -29.7% -32.4% 48% -1.8% -3.6% -5.4% -7.2% -9.0% -10.8% -12.6% -14.4% -16.2% -18.0% -19.8% -21.6% 49% -0.9% -1.8% -2.7% -3.6% -4.5% -5.4% -6.3% -7.2% -8.1% -9.0% -9.9% -10.8% 50% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51% 0.9% 1.8% 2.7% 3.6% 4.5% 5.4% 6.3% 7.2% 8.1% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8% 52% 1.8% 3.6% 5.4% 7.2% 9.0% 10.8% 12.6% 14.4% 16.2% 18.0% 19.8% 21.6% 53% 2.7% 5.4% 8.1% 10.8% 13.5% 16.2% 18.9% 21.6% 24.3% 27.0% 29.7% 32.4% 54% 3.6% 7.2% 10.8% 14.4% 18.0% 21.6% 25.2% 28.8% 32.4% 36.0% 39.6% 43.2% 55% 4.5% 9.0% 13.5% 18.0% 22.5% 27.0% 31.5% 36.0% 40.5% 45.0% 49.5% 54.0% 56% 5.4% 10.8% 16.2% 21.6% 27.0% 32.4% 37.8% 43.2% 48.6% 54.0% 59.4% 64.8% 57% 6.3% 12.6% 18.9% 25.2% 31.5% 37.8% 44.1% 50.4% 56.7% 63.0% 69.3% 75.6% 58% 7.2% 14.4% 21.6% 28.8% 36.0% 43.2% 50.4% 57.6% 64.8% 72.0% 79.2% 86.4% 59% 8.1% 16.2% 24.3% 32.4% 40.5% 48.6% 56.7% 64.8% 72.9% 81.0% 89.1% 97.2% 60% 9.0% 18.0% 27.0% 36.0% 45.0% 54.0% 63.0% 72.0% 81.0% 90.0% 99.0% 108.0% 61% 9.9% 19.8% 29.7% 39.6% 49.5% 59.4% 69.3% 79.2% 89.1% 99.0% 108.9% 118.8% 62% 10.8% 21.6% 32.4% 43.2% 54.0% 64.8% 75.6% 86.4% 97.2% 108.0% 118.8% 129.6% 63% 11.7% 23.4% 35.1% 46.8% 58.5% 70.2% 81.9% 93.6% 105.3% 117.0% 128.7% 140.4% 64% 12.6% 25.2% 37.8% 50.4% 63.0% 75.6% 88.2% 100.8% 113.4% 126.0% 138.6% 151.2% 65% 13.5% 27.0% 40.5% 54.0% 67.5% 81.0% 94.5% 108.0% 121.5% 135.0% 148.5% 162.0% 66% 14.4% 28.8% 43.2% 57.6% 72.0% 86.4% 100.8% 115.2% 129.6% 144.0% 158.4% 172.8% 67% 15.3% 30.6% 45.9% 61.2% 76.5% 91.8% 107.1% 122.4% 137.7% 153.0% 168.3% 183.6% 68% 16.2% 32.4% 48.6% 64.8% 81.0% 97.2% 113.4% 129.6% 145.8% 162.0% 178.2% 194.4% 69% 17.1% 34.2% 51.3% 68.4% 85.5% 102.6% 119.7% 136.8% 153.9% 171.0% 188.1% 205.2% 70% 18.0% 36.0% 54.0% 72.0% 90.0% 108.0% 126.0% 144.0% 162.0% 180.0% 198.0% 216.0%

Vigorish, however, is an unavoidable cost of gambling on sports. Below is the same data, taking into account the standard vigorish associated with a $110 wager to win $100.

ROI per Beginning Bankroll Table WITH Vigorish Season Winning Percentage Percentage of Beginning Bankroll Wagered Weekly 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0% 22.5% 25.0% 27.5% 30.0% 40% -10.6% -21.3% -31.9% -42.5% -53.2% -63.8% -74.5% -85.1% -95.7% -106.4% -117.0% -127.6% 41% -9.8% -19.6% -29.3% -39.1% -48.9% -58.7% -68.4% -78.2% -88.0% -97.8% -107.6% -117.3% 42% -8.9% -17.8% -26.8% -35.7% -44.6% -53.5% -62.4% -71.3% -80.3% -89.2% -98.1% -107.0% 43% -8.1% -16.1% -24.2% -32.2% -40.3% -48.4% -56.4% -64.5% -72.5% -80.6% -88.7% -96.7% 44% -7.2% -14.4% -21.6% -28.8% -36.0% -43.2% -50.4% -57.6% -64.8% -72.0% -79.2% -86.4% 45% -6.3% -12.7% -19.0% -25.4% -31.7% -38.0% -44.4% -50.7% -57.1% -63.4% -69.8% -76.1% 46% -5.5% -11.0% -16.4% -21.9% -27.4% -32.9% -38.4% -43.9% -49.3% -54.8% -60.3% -65.8% 47% -4.6% -9.2% -13.9% -18.5% -23.1% -27.7% -32.4% -37.0% -41.6% -46.2% -50.9% -55.5% 48% -3.8% -7.5% -11.3% -15.1% -18.8% -22.6% -26.3% -30.1% -33.9% -37.6% -41.4% -45.2% 49% -2.9% -5.8% -8.7% -11.6% -14.5% -17.4% -20.3% -23.2% -26.1% -29.0% -32.0% -34.9% 50% -2.0% -4.1% -6.1% -8.2% -10.2% -12.3% -14.3% -16.4% -18.4% -20.5% -22.5% -24.5% 51% -1.2% -2.4% -3.6% -4.7% -5.9% -7.1% -8.3% -9.5% -10.7% -11.9% -13.1% -14.2% 52% -0.3% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -2.9% -3.3% -3.6% -3.9% 53% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 4.3% 4.8% 5.3% 5.9% 6.4% 54% 1.4% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 7.0% 8.3% 9.7% 11.1% 12.5% 13.9% 15.3% 16.7% 55% 2.3% 4.5% 6.8% 9.0% 11.3% 13.5% 15.8% 18.0% 20.3% 22.5% 24.8% 27.0% 56% 3.1% 6.2% 9.3% 12.4% 15.5% 18.7% 21.8% 24.9% 28.0% 31.1% 34.2% 37.3% 57% 4.0% 7.9% 11.9% 15.9% 19.8% 23.8% 27.8% 31.7% 35.7% 39.7% 43.6% 47.6% 58% 4.8% 9.7% 14.5% 19.3% 24.1% 29.0% 33.8% 38.6% 43.4% 48.3% 53.1% 57.9% 59% 5.7% 11.4% 17.1% 22.7% 28.4% 34.1% 39.8% 45.5% 51.2% 56.9% 62.6% 68.2% 60% 6.5% 13.1% 19.6% 26.2% 32.7% 39.3% 45.8% 52.4% 58.9% 65.5% 72.0% 78.5% 61% 7.4% 14.8% 22.2% 29.6% 37.0% 44.4% 51.8% 59.2% 66.6% 74.0% 81.5% 88.9% 62% 8.3% 16.5% 24.8% 33.1% 41.3% 49.6% 57.8% 66.1% 74.4% 82.6% 90.9% 99.2% 63% 9.1% 18.2% 27.4% 36.5% 45.6% 54.7% 63.9% 73.0% 82.1% 91.2% 100.4% 109.5% 64% 10.0% 20.0% 29.9% 39.9% 49.9% 59.9% 69.9% 79.9% 89.8% 99.8% 109.8% 119.8% 65% 10.8% 21.7% 32.5% 43.4% 54.2% 65.0% 75.9% 86.7% 97.6% 108.4% 119.3% 130.1% 66% 11.7% 23.4% 35.1% 46.8% 58.5% 70.2% 81.9% 93.6% 105.3% 117.0% 128.7% 140.4% 67% 12.6% 25.1% 37.7% 50.2% 62.8% 75.4% 87.9% 100.5% 113.0% 125.6% 138.2% 150.7% 68% 13.4% 26.8% 40.3% 53.7% 67.1% 80.5% 93.9% 107.3% 120.8% 134.2% 147.6% 161.0% 69% 14.3% 28.6% 42.8% 57.1% 71.4% 85.7% 99.9% 114.2% 128.5% 142.8% 157.1% 171.3% 70% 15.1% 30.3% 45.4% 60.5% 75.7% 90.8% 106.0% 121.1% 136.2% 151.4% 166.5% 181.6%

Instead of using the charts above, you can more accurately estimate the return on your total beginning bankroll by using the following formula:

% return on beginning bankroll = (ROI per wager at your expected success rate x your standard wager size x # of expected wagers over the season) / beginning bankroll

Using a bankroll of $5,000, an expected success rate of 57%, 80 wagers and a standard wager size of $250 the return on beginning bankroll would be 56.0% (14% x $250 x 80 / $5,000), or $2,800.

These tables are for illustration purposes only. Many factors must be considered before determining a standard wager size, including risk tolerance and sports handicapping ability. See our article, Money Management - An Often Overlooked Key to Success, for more information.

We understand these tables may appear confusing, but ROI is crucial to successful NFL wagering. Please email us at info@nflgaming.com if you have questions that we can assist you with.